North Carolina is a perennially purple state that has been decided by less than 5 percentage points in 4 straight presidential races. Republicans have won the last 3. Currently, Donald Trump’s lead holds steady at 7.9% based on 14 polls. See vid below
NEW AVERAGES | 2024 Election Map Based on DDHQ/TheHill Polling
Unlike some states, North Carolina has traditionally reported almost all votes on election night. While that tradition will continue, a recent change in state law will shift back when most votes are reported an hour or two.
Early Reporting Made North Carolina a “Red Shift” State
Most North Carolinians vote early or by mail. The North Carolina State Board of Elections (SBE) reported that 53 percent of voters voted early, and five percent voted by mail. The proportion of voters who vote early is even higher in presidential elections; we can expect about two-thirds of voters to vote early in November.
Under state law, election officials tabulated early ballots on the afternoon of election day. They also tabulated all mail ballots they received before election day over the course of several weeks. The county election boards then released both sets of tabulations as soon as polls closed statewide. Read more at John Locke
In the upcoming 2024 elections, North Carolina emerges as a critical battleground, holding strategic importance for the Republican Party’s comeback bid in a state traditionally leaning towards a lighter shade of red. The electoral landscape is set to unfold its narrative on Super Tuesday, March 5, featuring a flurry of primaries that will shape the political trajectory.
Trump leads Biden in 7 swing states – The Hill Biden is losing to Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. These states are called “swing” states, and they are likely to “determine the outcome of the election,” The Hill notes. In all seven states, 48% of voters said they would support Trump and 43% would support Biden if the election were held at this time. The main reason for voters not to vote for Biden is his advanced age. According to a Bloomberg poll, 8 in 10 voters believe the current president is too old for another term. Trump is also considered mentally healthier. It is important to note that in the 2020 elections, Biden won Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, now the situation is completely different. The former president has a 6-point lead in these states- S p r i n t e r
Former President Donald Trump is anticipated to secure victory in the North Carolina GOP primary, mirroring his triumph in the state in 2020 by a narrow margin of 74,483 votes, claiming 49.93 percent against President Joe Biden’s 48.59 percent.
Despite Trump’s anticipated success, the spotlight on Super Tuesday shines brightly on the gubernatorial race, where Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, a favorite on the GOP side, contends with State Treasurer Dale Folwell and attorney Bill Graham. Robinson, endorsed by Trump, dominates the polls but faces criticism for comments deemed antisemitic and bigoted.
On the Democratic front, contenders for the gubernatorial seat include Attorney General Josh Stein, former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan, former Princeville police chief Gary Foxx, Town of Tryon Council member Chrelle Booker, and attorney Marcus Williams.
The battle extends to the attorney general position, where the GOP nominee, Rep. Dan Bishop, faces Democratic competitors Rep. Jeff Jackson and Marine Corps veteran Tim Dunn, along with Durham County District Attorney Satana Deberry.
In the congressional arena, redistricting has reshaped the landscape, resulting in 10 GOP districts and four Democrat districts. Republicans, capitalizing on veto-proof supermajorities, seem poised to gain an advantage, potentially winning two or three more congressional races than under previous district lines, as indicated by Duke University political science professor Jon Green.
Key retirements, redistricting, and candidacies mark the landscape. Rep. Jeff Jackson’s decision to run for North Carolina attorney general stems from a redrawn district favoring the GOP, a sentiment echoed by Rep. Kathy Manning, who cites a gerrymandered map disadvantaging Democrats. Manning’s redrawn district now heavily favors the GOP.
Former Rep. Mark Walker, Christian Castelli, and Bo Hines lead the Republican charge in districts undergoing significant transformations. The retirement of Rep. Wiley Nickel opens the door for 14 Republican contenders and one Democratic candidate, small business owner Frank Pierce.
Despite challenges posed by redistricting, Rep. Deborah Ross emphasizes the balance achieved in the new map, resulting in a 7–7 delegation that mirrors North Carolina’s purple political nature. Rep. Don Davis, a moderate in a swing district, faces reelection against Republican contenders Laurie Buckhout and Sandy Smith, both seeking to break the GOP’s veto-proof majority in the state legislature.
Beyond these races, the North Carolina GOP chairman, Michael Whatley, eyes the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee (RNC). Endorsed by Donald Trump, Whatley’s potential ascendancy coincides with the RNC grappling with financial challenges, operating with over $8 million less than its Democratic counterpart. Whatley, however, faces scrutiny for not being known for his fundraising prowess, while the North Carolina GOP operates with a $72,000 debt, according to financial disclosures.
In this high-stakes electoral landscape, North Carolina’s role extends beyond individual races, with the potential to influence the broader national political landscape, making it a state to watch closely in the 2024 elections.
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Major Points Discussed:
- North Carolina plays a pivotal role in the 2024 elections, serving as a key battleground for the Republican Party’s comeback.
- Super Tuesday on March 5 marks the beginning of the electoral effort, with former President Donald Trump expected to secure victory in the North Carolina GOP primary.
- Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson is a strong GOP contender for the gubernatorial race, endorsed by Trump but facing criticism for controversial remarks.
- Redistricting has reshaped the congressional landscape, providing Republicans with favorable maps and potentially leading to gains in congressional races.
- Michael Whatley, the North Carolina GOP chairman, aims to take over the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee, but financial challenges and scrutiny over fundraising abilities loom over the party’s leadership transition.
James Kravitz
Comments – Threads – Links
- Massive crowd in the rally and excited people- MS Ramay
- Mark Robinson is so amazing. I wish he could be VP- oldoceangirl
- Best fighter and best president ever and long with truth and honest reporter Laura Loomer- Pete
- Trump will be holding rallies today in Greensboro, North Carolina at 2 EST and Richmond, Virginia at 6 EST!- Ultra MAGA Joyce Day
- So excited Trump’s coming back to NC!- Mimi Balone